Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XI

Albany, New York

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

 

7:50 am

Welcoming Remarks

Eugene P. Auciello, Meteorologist In Charge

Warren R. Snyder, Science & Operations Officer

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Conference Chairs

Steve R. DiRienzo

Senior Service Hydrologist, National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Warren R. Snyder

Science & Operations Officer, National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

 

Session A – Warm Season Topics / Convection

 

8:00 am

Southerly or “Reverse Mohawk-Hudson Convergence Cases”

Hugh W. Johnson and Kim Sutkevich

 NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office Albany, New York

 

8:15 am

Preparing for a Change in Severe Hail Warning Criteria in 2010

Brian J. Frugis

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office Albany, New York

8:30 am

Issues Associated with Transitioning to a New Severe Hail Criteria

Matthew Steinbugl

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

 

8:50 am

Predicting Severe Hail in the WFO LWX County Warning Area: Toward Increased Accuracy in Hail Size Forecasts

Matthew R. Kramar

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Sterling, Virginia

 

 

 

  

9:10 am

The Impact of the St. Lawrence Valley on the Precipitation Distribution of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005)

Eyad Atallah

McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

 

9:30 am

Reanalysis of Southern New England Tornadoes to Improve Warning Verification

Joseph W. DelliCarpini

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Taunton, Massachusetts

 

9:50 am

Evaluation and Response to the Northern and Downeast Maine

Tornado Events of 2009

Todd Lericos

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Caribou, Maine

 

10:10 am

Break

Refreshments available for sale by the Capital Region Chapter of the AMS

 

 

Session B – Cool Season Topics /Winter Weather

 

10:30 am

HPC Winter Weather Desk Operations and Upcoming NCEP Model Changes

Dan Petersen

NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

 

10:50 am

Far Upstream Precursors of Early-Season Cold-Air Outbreaks over the Northeast United States

 Jason M. Cordeira

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY

 

11:10 am

Improving Forecasts for High Impact Sub-Advisory Snow Squalls

David Nicosia

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

11:30 am

Planetary and Synoptic Analysis of Freezing Rain Events in Montreal, Quebec

Gina M. Ressler

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

11:50 pm

Use of a Historical Analog-Based Winter Storm Guidance Package for Forecasting a Central New York Snow Event

Michael Evans

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

12:10 pm

Lunch

 

 

Session- C  Keynote Presentation

Introduction – Warren R. Snyder 

 

1:30 pm

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Comparing Climatic Response to Low and High Latitude Volcanic Eruptions, and Are They a Good Analog for Geoengineering?
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

 

3:00 pm

Question & Answer Session

 

3:15 pm

Break

Refreshments available for sale by the Capital Region Chapter of the AMS

 

 

Session D – Hydrology and Heavy Rain Events

 

3:30 pm

Application of Forecast Verification Science to Operational River Forecasting in the National Weather Service

Julie Demargne

NOAA/NWS Office of Hydrologic Development, Silver Spring, Maryland

 

4:00 pm

Ice Jams on the Lower Mohawk River

John I. Garver

Geology Department, Union College, SchenectadyNew York

 

4:20 pm

Simulating River Ice Thickness to Provide Advance
Notification of Breakup Ice Jam Potential to Emergency Managers

Stephen N. DiRienzo

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

4:40 pm

Ice Jam History, Ice Jam Mitigation Training and Ice Mitigation Efforts in WFO Albany’s Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)

John S. Quinlan

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

4:55 pm

Implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System
 at the Northeast River Forecast Center

David R. Vallee
NOAA/
NWS Northeast River Forecast Center, Taunton, Massachusetts

 

5:20 pm

A Review of the Precipitation Distribution Associated with the TROWAL and its Application to a New England QPF Event.

Frank M. Nocera

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Taunton, Massachusetts

 

5:40 pm

An Overview of an Unprecedented Flash Flood Event in Western New York

David Zaff

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Buffalo, New York

 

6:00 pm

Adjourn

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XI

Albany, New York

Thursday, November 5, 2009

 

 

Session E – General Session

 

8:00 am

The Influence of Upper-Level Sub-Synoptic Scale Potential Vorticity Disturbances on Severe Weather in the Southwestern United States

Scott Sukup and Tim Melino

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

8:20 am

The Impact of Recurving Western North Pacific Typhoons on the Large-Scale Flow Pattern over North America

Heather M. Archambaul

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

8:40 am

Decision Support Services for High Profile Events

Brandon Smith

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Upton, New York

 

 

Session F – Modeling and Ensemble Forecasting

 

9:00 am

1.      Lessons in Predictability: The Post Groundhog Day 2009 Storm

2.      Lessons in Predictability: Part 2 - The March 2009 “Megastorm”

Neil A. Stuart

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

9:30 am

Towards an Ensemble Forecast Air Quality System for New York State

Michael Erickson

 School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

 

 

 

9:50 am

 Meteorological Evolution and Model Performance for Fire Threat Days  Over the Northeast U.S.

Joseph Pollina

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Upton, New York

 

10:10 am

Evaluation of a Multi-Model Storm Surge Ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region

Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

10:30 am

Developing Better Forecasts: An Analysis of Two Storms During Summer 2009 Using the High Resolution WRF Model and Observations on July 7 and August 18

E. Novakovskaia

IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY

 

10:50 am

Break

Refreshments available for sale by the Capital Region Chapter of the AMS

 

 

Session G – CSTAR & Related Topics

 

11:10 am

A Climatology of Convective Types over the Northeast U.S:  Ambient Conditions and the Role of the Appalachian Lee on Initiation

Kelly Lombardo

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

 

11:30 am

Wind Channeling in the St. Lawrence River Valley: Synoptic Patterns, Local Conditions, and Operational Forecasts

Alissa Razy

Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

 

 

11:50 am

Lunch

 

1:00 pm

Northeast Convective Flash Floods:  Helping Forecasters Stay Ahead of Rising Water

Joseph P. Villani

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, NY

 

1:20 pm

The Northeast Convective Flash Flood Project: July 29th 2009 Flash Flood Case Study

Derek V. Mallia

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany,

State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

1:40 pm

An Examination of the March 1-2, 2009 East Coast Gravity-Wave Using High-Resolution Operational Data Sets

Alan M. Cope

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Mount Holly, New Jersey

 

2:00 pm

An Application of a Cutoff Low Forecaster Pattern Recognition Model to the 30 June - 2 July 2009 Significant Event for the Northeast  

 Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS  Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

2:20 pm

Analysis of Precipitation Distributions Associated with Two Cool-Season Cutoff Cyclones

Melissa Payer

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York

 

2:40 pm

Break

 

3:00 pm

Cool-Season High Wind Events in the Northeast

Jonas V. Asuma

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

 

 

 

3:20 pm

Synoptic Environments Associated with Predecessor Rain Events in Advance of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Benjamin J. Moore

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany,

State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

3:40 pm

A Comparison of Predecessor Rainfall Event Development with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

NOAA/NWS Weather Foreacst Office, Binghamton, NY

 

4:00 pm

Predecessor Rain Events Ahead of TC Ike and TC Lowell on 11–14 September 2008

Lance F. Bosart

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

4:20 pm

Adjourn

 

6:30pm

CSTAR Dinner at Buca di Beppo Italian Restaurant

44 Wolf RoadColonieNew York

 

 

 

NROW XII will be held November 3-4, 2010