Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop IX

Albany, New York

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

9:00 am

Welcoming Remarks

Eugene P. Auciello, Meteorologist In Charge

Warren R. Snyder, Science & Operations Officer

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

Session A – Warm Season Topics / Convection

Session Chair – Thomas Wasula

9:05 am

A Case Study on the August 25, 2007 Severe Weather Event in Eastern New York and Western New England

Brian J. Frugis

NOAA/National Weather Service, Albany, NY

9:25 am

The 19 June 2007 Fulton County Hail Monster

Joseph P. Villani

NOAA/National Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

9:45 am

A Tale of Two Consecutive Severe Weather Derailments across the Northeast

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/National Weather Service, Albany, New York

10:05 am

The June 19, 2007 Delaware County Flash Flood:

A Meteorological and Hydrological Analysis

Michael Schaffner

NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

10:25-10:45 am

Break

10:45 am

17 August 2007 “Sudden” Northwest Flow Severe Weather Event: A Near-Miss for the 2007 Little League World Series

Matt Steinbugl

NOAA/National Weather Service, State College, Pennsylvania

11:05 am

Enhanced Northeasterly Winds in the Western Gulf of Maine

Daniel St. Jean

NOAA/National Weather Service, Gray Maine

11:25 am

Using the WSR-88D Storm Structure Product to Develop a Climatology of Northern New England Thunderstorms as a Function of Large-Scale Flow

Evan M. Lowery

Department of Chemical, Earth, Atmospheric, and Physical Sciences, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, New Hampshire

11:45 am

Warm Season Thunderstorm Patterns Over the New Jersey Area

Alan M. Cope

NOAA/National Weather Service, Mount Holly, New Jersey

12:05-1:30pm

Lunch

Session B – Cool Season Topics / Winter Weather

Session Chair – Neil Stuart

1:30 pm

Recurving Typhoons as Precursors to an Early Season Arctic Outbreak over the Continental U.S.

Heather Archambault

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

1:50 pm

Flow Channeling in the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys:

A Multiscale Case Study of Mohawk-Hudson Convergence

Michael E. Augustyniak

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, New York

Hugh W. Johnson IV
NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

2:10 pm

Environments of Non-Significant Cool Season Severe Weather Events in the Southeastern United States

William A. Komaromi

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

2:30 pm

Forecast Issues Associated with the Valentine’s Day, St. Patrick’s Day and Tax/Patriots Day 2007 Storms

Neil A. Stuart

NOAA/National Weather Service, Albany, New York

2:50 pm

The Great New York City/New Jersey Flood of April 2007: A NCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Perspective

Mike Brennan

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

3:10 -3:30 pm

Break

3:30 pm

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview of Three Severe Convective Events over Long Island in 2007

Kelly Lombardo

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

3:50 pm

Verification of Extratropical Cyclones Within NCEP Forecast Models

Using An Automated Tracking Algorithm

Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

4:10 pm

An Investigation of Cold-Air Cyclogenesis along the East Coast of the United States

Christopher J. Warren

Department of Chemical, Earth, Atmospheric, and Physical Sciences

Plymouth State University, Plymouth, New Hampshire

Session C - Keynote Presentation and Discussion

Introduction – Eugene P. Auciello

4:30 pm

Computer Modeling of the Global Climate and its Role in the Assessment of Climate Change

Keith W. Dixon

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)

Princeton, New Jersey

6:00 pm

ADJOURN

Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop IX

Albany, New York

Thursday, November 8, 2007

^{Session D – CSTAR Projects and Related Topics}

^{Session Chair - Joseph P. Villani}

9:00 am

Predecessor Rain Events in Tropical Cyclones

Lance F. Bosart

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

^{9:20 am}

A Comparison of Two Tropical Cyclones from the 2007 Season with Regards to Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) Development

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

NOAA/National Weather Service, Binghamton, New York

9:40 am

Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

10:00 am

Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast

Patrick H. Wilson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

10:20-10:50 am

Break

10:50 am

A Severe Weather Outbreak Associated with A Great Lakes Cutoff Cyclone

Nicholas D. Metz

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

11:10 am

Between the Observations – Examination of Two Tornadic Events in Southeastern New York

William Goodman

NOAA/National Weather Service, Upton, New York

11:30 am

An Unusual Pathway to Oceanic Cyclogenesis: Linking “Perfect Storms” in the North Atlantic Ocean

Jason M. Cordeira

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

11:50 – 1:30 pm

Lunch

^{Session E – Modeling and Ensemble Forecasting}

Session Chair - Warren R. Snyder

1:30 pm

What’s New at NCEP? An Update on the HPC Winter Weather Desk and Recent Changes to the NCEP Model Suite

Michael J. Brennan

NOAA/National Weather Service, National Center For Evironmental Prediction/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

1:50 pm

AWIPS Procedures, Visualizations, and Forecast Strategies to Identify Severe Weather Potential

Josh Korotky

NOAA/National Weather Service, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

2:10 pm

Using Short Range Ensemble Forecasts with Deterministic Model Guidance to Identify Severe Weather Threats

Josh Korotky

NOAA/National Weather Service, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

2:30 pm

Customization of a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System for

Energy Industry Applications

Anthony P. Praino.

IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

Yorktown Heights, New York

2:50-3:10 pm

Break

3:10 pm

High Resolution Numerical Prediction in Steep Terrain: The MAP D-PHASE Project

R. McTaggart-Cowan

Numerical Weather Prediction Research Division, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

3:30 pm

Ensembling Mesoscale Model Data:CLENSEMBLE

Christopher Mello

NOAA/National Weather Service, Cleveland, Ohio

3:50 pm

Regional Ensemble Forecasts of the 7 February 2007

Lake Effect Snow Event

Justin Arnott

NOAA/National Weather Service, Binghamton, New York

4:10 pm

Using 925 mb Temperatures to Improve Operational River Forecasts During Mixed Precipitation Events

Ronald S.W. Horwood

NOAA/National Weather Service, Taunton, Massachusetts

4:30 pm

Assessing the Predictability of Band Formation and Evolution during Three Recent Northeast U.S. Snowstorms

David R. Novak

NOAA/National Weather Service, Eastern Region Headquarters, Scientific Services Division, Bohemia, New York

4:50 pm

An Update on the Stony Brook Storm Surge Modeling System: Improvements and Simulation of Past Hurricane Events

Tom DiLiberto

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

5:10 pm

ADJOURN

6:30pm

CSTAR Dinner at Buca di Beppo Italian Restaurant

44 Wolf Road, Colonie, New York

NROW X will be held November 5-7, 2008*

*Unless conflict exists with AMS Severe Local Storms Conference then October 22-24