Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XVIII

Albany, New York

 Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

 

8:30 am

Welcoming Remarks & Conference Logistics

Raymond G. O’Keefe, Meteorologist In Charge

Thomas A. Wasula, NROW XVIII Steering Committee Chair

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Session A – Extreme Weather Event(s)

8:45 am

Retrospective Analysis of the 1954-55 Hurricane Seasons and Impacts to

the Northeast U.S.

Kevin S. Lipton

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

9:05 am

A North Pacific Jet Phase Diagram Perspective on Extreme Weather Events During 2016–2017: General Characteristics

Andrew C. Winters

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

9:25 am

A North Pacific Jet Phase Diagram Perspective on Extreme Weather Events During 2016–2017: Illustrative Examples

Lance F. Bosart

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

9:45 am

Hurricane Harvey: The Name Says it All

Rich H. Grumm

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

 

 

10:05 am

Morning Break

SUNY Albany AMS selling Refreshments in Nano South Conference Center Rotunda

 

 

Session B – Winter Weather  Session I

10:30 am

The Major Lake-Enhanced Central New York Snowstorm of November 20-21, 2016

Part 1: Overview, Forecast Tools and Verification

Michael Evans

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

10:50 am

The Major Lake-Enhanced Central New York Snowstorm of November 20-21, 2016 Part 2: Comparison with a Historical Analog and Assessing the Importance of Atlantic Inflow and Lake-to-Lake Connectivity

Michael L. Jurewicz Sr.

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

11:10 am

Using GAZPACHO to Create Forecast Snowfall Bias/Error Maps Stratified by Flow Regime

Joseph P. Villani

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

11:30 am

Applying Forecast Track Diagnostics in High-Impact Northeast Winter Storms: Climatology and Case Analysis

Tomer Burg

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

11:50 am

2017-18 Winter Weather Desk Operations at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

Dan Petersen

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

 

 

 

12:10 pm –1:40 pm

Lunch

 

 

 

Session C – Severe Weather

1:40 pm

A Rare February Severe Weather Event: The Goshen/Conway, MA EF-1 Tornado of 25 February 2017

Frank M. Nocera

NOAA / NWS Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

 

2:00 pm

Total Lightning and Uplsope Flow as Predictors of Severe Weather in the Northeast

Brian H. Tang

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

2:20 pm

The 24 July 2017 Overnight Tornadic Supercell in Eastern Maryland

Mitchell W. Gaines

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Mount Holly, New Jersey

 

2:40 pm

A Multi-Scale Analysis of the 18 May 2017 Severe Weather Event across Eastern New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

 

 

3:00 pm

Break: SUNY Albany AMS selling Refreshments in Nano South Conference Center Rotunda

 

 

 

 

Session D – New York Mesonet and Applications

3:20 pm

An Update on the Installation and Operation of the New York State Mesonet

Jerry Brotzge

Atmospheric Science Research Center, Albany, NY

 

3:40 pm

A Model Review of the Historic West Virginia Historic and Devastating Floods of 23 June 2016

Correcting Unfixable Error in Gust Forecasts Over New York Using a New Gust Parameterization: Network Average Gust Factor

Alex Gallagher

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

4:00 pm

An Analysis of a Possible New York State Dryline Utilizing the New York State Mesonet

Luke J. Lebel

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

NROW XVIII Key Note Presentation

 

 

4:20 pm

Progress in Forecasting Hazardous Convective Weather with the NCAR-WRF High-Resolution Ensemble

Morris Weisman

NCAR/MMM, Boulder, Colorado

 

5:10 pm

Wrap up

Thomas A. Wasula

 

5:15 pm

Adjourn

6:30–9:30 pm

CSTAR Dinner at Brown’s Brewing Company (Trojan Room) for participants in UAlbany–NWS CSTAR VI

417 River Street, Troy, New York

518-273-2337

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XVIII

Albany, New York

Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

Thursday, November 2, 2017

 

8:15 am

Opening Remarks

Raymond G. O’Keefe, Meteorologist In Charge

Thomas A. Wasula, NROW XVIII Steering Committee Chair

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Session E – Winter Weather Session II

8:20 am

The Value of Using Mesoscale Ensembles in Major Winter Storms

Rich H. Grumm

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

                                    

8:40 am

The NWS Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast Experiment: 2016-17 Review and Future Plans

Jeff  S. Waldstreicher

NOAA/NWS, Eastern Region Science Services Division, Bohemia, New York

 

9:00 am

Radar Signatures and Surface Observations During Multi-Vehicle Crashes in Snow

Dan B. Thompson

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

9:20 am

Implementation of NWS Snow Squall Warnings

Peter C. Banacos

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Burlington, Vermont

 

9:40 am

Communicating Uncertainty Using High Resolution Ensembles & Probabilistic Datasets for an Anomalous Early Season Snow Event in New England

Frank M. Nocera

NOAA / NWS Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

 

10:00 am

Break: SUNY Albany AMS selling Refreshments in Nano South Conference Center Rotunda

 

Session F – Ensembles/Modeling

10:20 am

Development of an Uncertainty Tool to Assess Model Forecast Parameters

Taylor Mandelbaum

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

10:40 am

Predictability of Snow Multi-Bands Using a 40-Member WRF Ensemble

Ryan J. Connelly

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

11:00 am

Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the 10–12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event: Sensitivity to Initial and Boundary Conditions

W. Massey Bartolini

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

11:20 am

Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the 10–12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event: Sensitivity to Microphysical and Surface-Layer Parameterizations

Justin R. Minder

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

11:40 am

Future NCEP Modeling Plans

Corey Guastini

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland

 

 

 

Noon-130 pm

Lunch

 

 

 

 

Session G – Aviation/Verification/Climatologies

1:50 pm

An Analysis of Lead-Times for Northeast Tornado Warnings 2010-2016

Ethan C. Burwell

Earth & Atmospheric Environmental Sciences

Cornell University, Ithaca, New York

 

2:10 pm

A Dewpoint Climatology in the Capital District of New York

Cameron R. Paquette

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

2:30 pm

A Climatology of Inverted Troughs over the Gulf of Maine and New England

Joseph E. Cebulko

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

 

2:50 pm Break: SUNY Albany AMS selling Refreshments in Nano South Conference Center Rotunda

 

 

Session H – Heavy Precipitation/Flash Flooding/Tropical Systems

3:15 pm

Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Northeast United States: 1979–2014

Macy E. Howarth

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

3:35 pm

Examination of the Flash Flood Vulnerability Index Using the October 20-21, 2016 Flash Flooding Event in Central Pennsylvania

Joseph Ceru

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

 

3:55 pm

An Analysis of Large Track Error North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Nicholas Leonardo

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

4:15 pm

Global Ensemble Forecasts of Hurricane Irma: Uncertainty Associated with United States Landfall

Rich H. Grumm

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

4:35 – Wrap Up

Thomas A. Wasula

 

4:45 pm – Adjourn

 

NROW XIX is scheduled November 7–8, 2018

At the Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

On the Campus of the College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering

State University of New York Polytechnic Institute, Albany, New York