Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XVII

Albany, New York

 Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

 

8:30 am

Welcoming Remarks & Conference Logistics

Raymond G. O’Keefe, Meteorologist In Charge

Thomas A. Wasula, NROW XVII Steering Committee Chair

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Session A – Extreme Weather Event(s)

8:45 am

The 10th Anniversary of the Valentine’s Day Storm of 2007

John S. Quinlan

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

9:05 am

Regime-Dependent Predictability of Extreme Weather Events:

Characteristic Regime Types

Andrew C. Winters

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

9:25 am

Regime-Dependent Predictability of Extreme Weather Events:  

Representative Cases

Lance F. Bosart

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

9:45 am

Factors Contributing to the Heavy Rainfall in the Catskill Mountains Associated With Hurricane Irene (2011)

Luke J. Lebel

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

10:05 am

Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Molly B. Smith                              

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

10:25 am

Break

 

Session B – Winter Weather/Cool Season Case Studies

10:40 am

Changes in the Winter Weather Desk Forecasts and Experimental Forecasts at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

Dan Petersen

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

 

11:00 am

The Elevation-Dependence of Snowfall in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Region of Northeast Pennsylvania

Michael Evans

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

11:20 am

A GIS-Based Winter Storm Impact Index (WSII) for a Weather-Ready Nation

Andy Nash

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Burlington, Vermont

 

11:40 am

A Multiscale Analysis of Major Transition Season Northeast Snowstorms

Rebecca B. Steeves

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

12:00 pm

An Examination of the Rare Winter Tornado Event of 24 February 2016

Joe Ceru

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

 

 

 

12:20–1:50 pm

Lunch

 

 

 

Session C – Severe Weather I

1:50 pm

The Nocturnal Severe Weather Outbreak of 25 February 2016 in Southern New England

Frank M. Nocera

NOAA / NWS Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

2:10 pm

An Unusual Morning Severe Weather Event in September: A Review of

September 11, 2016

Justin Arnott

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Gray, Maine

 

2:30 pm

Demonstrating an Effective End-To-End Warning Process: The Concord, MA Early Morning EF-1 Tornado of 22 August 2016

Joseph W. DelliCarpini

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

2:50 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Wind Damage Criteria – Is It Time For A Change?

Joseph P. Villani

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

3:10 pm

Examining Methods to Accurately Predict Significant Severe Thunderstorm Wind Damage during the 2016 Severe Weather Season in Upstate New York

Brian J. Frugis

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

3:30 pm

Break

 

Session D – Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding

3:50 pm

Improving Situational Awareness for Flash Flood Forecasting in a Small Urban Catchment by Integrating Meteorological Analysis into a Geospatial Framework

John M. Goff

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Burlington, Vermont

 

4:10 pm

A Model Review of the Historic West Virginia Historic and Devastating Floods of 23 June 2016

Richard Grumm

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, State College, Pennsylvania

 

4:30 pm

A Synoptic Comparison of Two High-Impact Predecessor Rainfall Events:  Tropical Storm Lee/Hurricane Katia of September 2011 and Hurricane Joaquin of October 2015

Michael L. Jurewicz Sr.

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

4:50 pm

The Ellicott City, Maryland, Flash Flood of 30 July 2016: Where Meteorology, Hydrology and Geography Collide

Steven M. Zubrick

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Sterling, Virginia

 

5:10 pm

Wrap up

Thomas A. Wasula

 

5:15 pm

Adjourn

6:30–9:30 pm

CSTAR Dinner at Brown’s Brewing Company (Trojan Room) for participants in UAlbany–NWS CSTAR VI

417 River Street, Troy, New York

518-273-2337

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agenda

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XVII

Albany, New York

Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

Thursday, November 3, 2016

 

8:00 am

Opening Remarks

Raymond G. O’Keefe, Meteorologist In Charge

Thomas A. Wasula, NROW XVII Steering Committee Chair

National Weather Service, Albany, New York

 

Session E – Decision Support Services, Testbeds, and Data Networks

8:05 am

The Evolution of Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) at the Boston CWSU

Scott Reynolds

NOAA/NWS Center Weather Service Unit, Nashua, New Hampshire

                                    

8:25 am

Severe Weather Testbed Activities in Southern New England

Joseph W. DelliCarpini

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

8:45 am

“Living on the Edge”: Communicating Uncertainty for the 23–24 January 2016 Blizzard in southern New England

Frank M. Nocera

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Boston, Massachusetts

 

9:05 am

Medium Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC):

An Ensemble Effort in Big Data

Tony Fracasso

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

 

9:25am

New York State Mesonet

Jerry Brotzge

Atmospheric Science Research Center, Albany, NY

 

9:45am

Break

 

 

 

Session F – Ensembles

10:00 am

Toward Operational Convection-Allowing Ensembles over the United States

Craig Schwartz

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

 

10:20 am

Verification of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and an Analysis of Large Track Error Cases

Nicholas Leonardo

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

10:40 am

A Review of the CSTAR Ensemble Tools Available for Operations

Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York

 

11:00-11:45 am

 

Round Table Discussion: Current Use of Ensembles in Operations

 

11:45 am

Lunch

 

Session G – Lightning, Heat, and Wind

1:15 pm

Use of High-Resolution Lightning Potential Forecasts for Vermont Utility Applications

Rob D’Arienzo

Vermont Electric Power Company, Rutland, Vermont

 

1:35 pm

Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

Pamela Eck

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

 

1:55 pm

A Synoptic Climatology of Excessive Heat Events in the Philadelphia Area

Lance Franck

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Mount Holly, New Jersey

 

 

2:15 pm

High Wind Events in Western New York:  An Expanded Study and Development of Potential Impact Tables

Shawn Smith

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Buffalo, New York

 

2:35 pm

A Case Study of Five Unwarned Microbursts across Central New York

Paul Fitzsimmons

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

2:55 pm Break

 

Session H – Severe Weather II

3:15 pm

A Multi-Scale Analysis of the 1 July 2016 Null Tornado Watch across Eastern New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Albany, New York

 

3:35 pm

The 8 June 2016 Severe Weather Event in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Jared R. Klein

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Mount Holly, New Jersey

 

3:55 pm

Examination of Recent Mini-Supercell Tornadic Events in the Tri-State

Patrick Maloit

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, New York, New York

 

4:15 pm

Assessing the Utility of Normalized Rotation in Detecting Tornado Development in the Allegheny Front

Dylan T. Cooper

NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Charleston, West Virginia

 

4:35 pm

The Utility of Incorporating Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures into the Tornado Warning Process:  ZDR/KDP Separation Considerations in Supercells

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

 

4:55 pm - Wrap Up

Thomas A. Wasula

 

5:00 pm – Adjourn

 

NROW XVIII is scheduled November 1–2, 2017

At the Nano South Conference Center, Room 103, 255 Fuller Road

On the Campus of the College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering

State University of New York,  Albany, New York