A multi hazard event unfolded across CWA on Jan. 25, with ice jam flooding occurring on Jan. 26. The main hazard was flooding, although there were wind and ice issues.
Alerting of Emergency Managers on potential for this event began on Friday, Jan. 22 with first conference calls. Conference calls were also conducted on Sat. and Sun. The message on flood potential was consistent given extreme values of PWATS and 925/850 winds. So, although models jumped around with QPF, we continued to highlight flood threat. For instance we continued to tout potential for Prattsville flow to reach 30000 cfs with moderate flooding potential even as model QPF and RFC guidance indicated lesser amounts. As it turned out, Prattsville got to 29000 CFS!
Two people were killed in Fulton County when their car slid off an icy road around 1 am Jan. 25 in Oppenheim. An SPS alerting to icy conditions was issued during Jan. 24 evening, but expired at 1215 am Jan. 25. A review of temperature data for that time indicated very little (or no) evidence of freezing temperatures in Fulton County.
Wind Advisories were posted for usual SE flow regime locations -- Taconics, Berkshires, and added this time southern Herkimer. As it turned out wind damage was also reported across southern Dutchess County with fairly strong gusts noted at Albany. The wind advisory was expanded to include eastern Dutchess county and Litchfield County around 9-930 am. It was expanded for the entire area around noontime. SVR's were going to be issued if LTG occurred or convective elements with 50+dBZ's were to occur.
Flooding occurred in the eastern Catskills due to swather of 3-5+ inches over western Greene and Ulster counties. Tannersville had 5.4", which was indicative by the flooding at Prattsville.
The flooding in the Upper Hudson River basins was a combination of the rainfall and the runoff from snowmelt. Minor flooding occurred along the Mettawee...Walloomsac and Hoosic river basins. 2" rainfall amounts occurred in the Adirondacks. Downsloping and sunshine occurred over the central and eastern Capital District on the morning of the 25th. Terrain seemed to be significant modulator of precipitation. When LLJ is extreme...terrain effects may be modeled best by NAM12 or HIRESWRF...even if QPF forecasts aren't perfect. We really need a map of precip totals produced from the storm total PNS. This would show the terrain effects.
It would have helped the forecast team...if someone from the Dutchess County EM office called with two dozen trees around the county. A short fuse high wind warning may have been issued for the Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties.
A few selected forecast guidance graphics:
AHPS displays for The Hudson River
AHPS displays for The Mohawk River
AHPS displays for The Schoharie Creek
AHPS displays for Vermont
AHPS displays for the Mid Hudson Valley and Catskills
AHPS displays for
Pictures – From
Pictures – From Schenectady Airport area
Pictures along the Mohawk River from Rotterdam through Lock 13 to Dolgeville
Pictures from Vischer Ferry
Any comments, questions or suggestions, please mail to:Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov