1 December 2010 floods

 

A strong cold front swept across east central New York and adjacent western New England Wednesday bringing strong and gusty winds and heavy rains to the area. With the passage of the cold front winds quickly shifted from the south-southeast to the west and temperatures rapidly dropped from the 50s into the 30s. Rain mixed with and changed to sleet across the Mohawk Valley in the wake of the cold front. Ahead of the cold front a very strong south to southeast low level jet resulted in wind gusts up to 55 mph and with the passage of the front there were wind gusts up to around 50 mph. These strong winds gusts downed trees and power lines resulting in power outages. Generally, 1 to 3 inches of rain fell across the area with higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches across the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills. River flooding occurred in the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. In addition, urban and small stream flooding also occurred across the local area.

 

Above:  Loop of surface maps through the event.

 

Flooding

 

 

Above:  QPF for the NAM80 (upper left), NAM12 (upper right), GFS40 (lower left) and ECMWF (lower right) valid 12Z Thursday 2 December.

 

 

 

Above:  PWAT loops of the SREF (left) and GEFS (right).  Note the 3-4 SD above normal values over the northeastern U.S.

 

 

 

Above:  Loop of probability of 2 inches of rain in 36 hours from the SREF (left) and GEFS (right).  Note the increase in predicted probabilities and areal extent as the event gets nearer in time.

 

 

Above:  Loop of probability of 3 inches of rain in 36 hours from the SREF.  Note the increase in predicted probabilities and areal extent as the event gets nearer in time.

 

 

 

Above:  Loops of SREF plumes from Albany, NY, Watertown, NY, and Montpelier, VT.  Note the clustering above 2 inches as the event gets nearer.

 

Above:  Loops of SREF plumes from Elmira, NY, Bradley Field, CT.  Note the clustering above 2 inches as the event gets nearer.

 

  

 

Above:  Loops of SREF plumes from Albany, NY, Elmira, NY, and Montpelier, VT.  Note the clustering above 2 inches as the event gets nearer.

 

Damaging Winds:

 

 

 

Above:  Winds and anomalies (shaded) for 850 winds from the SREF (left) and GEFS (right).  Note the increase in magnitude and areal extent of the anomalous V winds, that peaked at 4-5 SD above normal.

 

 

 

Above:  Soundings from Albany, NY at 1200 UTC 1 December (left) and 0000 UTC 2 December (right).  Note the anomalous moisture and very strong low level winds in the 1200 UTC sounding. 

 

   

 

   

 

   

 

Above:  Hydrographs for selected river gage locations.  Note most points reach near or just above flood stage.  Twp points reached moderate flooding.

 

 

Above:  Stage 4 precipitation analysis from MPE.  Note the maximum in the eastern Catskills.

 

Any comments, questions or suggestions, please mail to:Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov