31 July 2009 Severe Weather Outbreak and Flooding

(Click on any image to see loop or larger image)

 

 

This event occurred along a slow moving cold front in which significant flooding was observed 2 days before on 7/29. very similar upper level and surface features contributed to a severe weather and flood event of lesser magnitude than 7/29, but aggravated the already existing flooding, and the clean-up activities that began on 7/29.

 

Storm Prediction Center Upper Air Analyses

 

 

850 hPa 12Z July 31 300 hPa 00Z 31 July

 

Satellite loops

 

Water Vapor loop

 

 

Visible loop

 

 

Visible loop 1 Visible loop 2

 

Satellite Precipitation Estimates

 

 

Data and Forecasts

 

Compare GFS and NAM CAPE rainfall forecasts. There were some fluctuations in the model output from run to run, contributing to uncertainties in placement of the precipitation maxima.

 

 

GFS NAM ECMWF

 

GFS Ensemble output

 

 

850 hPa winds/anomalies PWAT Probability of 1 inch in 24 hours

 

Radar Loops

 

KENX Loop from 1600-1800 UTC of reflectivity and Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings

 

 

KENX Loop from 1800-2000 UTC of reflectivity and Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings

 

 

 

KENX Loop from 2200-2400 UTC of reflectivity and Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings

 

 

KENX Loop from 2200-2400 UTC of reflectivity and Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories and Flash Flood Warnings

 

Precipitation estimates from KENX and Stage 3 from the River Forecast Center Note the differences.

 

 

12Z 31 July Soundings Significant moisture and instability present across the region.

 

 

ALY OKX

 

18Z 31 July Soundings

 

 

OKX

 

Severe weather reports for individual NWS offices, courtesy of The Iowa Environmental Mesonet division of Iowa State University Department of Agronomy

 

NWS Binghamton, NY

 

 

NWS Albany, NY

 

 

NWS Taunton, MA

 

 

NWS Upton, NY

 

 

Pictures from NWS Spotters and media. Thanks to WTEN-TV in Albany, NY for pictures.

 

 

Flooding in Stockbridge, MA.

 

 

Rain gage in Kinderhook, NY, combined rains from 7/29 and 7/31.

 

 

Any questions or suggestions, please e-mail Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov