30 June 2009 Severe Weather Outbreak

(Click on any image to see loop or larger image)

 

This fit into the latest CSTAR research on upper lows by Matt Scolara, most resembling a CSTAR Upper low Neutral Tilt Type A Event

 

This event was well-anticipated, with the Storm Prediction Center putting our region in the slight risk more than a day in advance. Operational guidance suggested that cooling aloft associated with the slow advance of a neutral tilt upper low, along with an upper impulse rotating around its periphery, would support severe weather in our region. Upper air data and satellite imagery confirmed the existence of these features. Operational guidance also suggested a very diurnal nature to the convection, along the leading edge of cloudiness and a low level theta-e ridge in central and eastern NY during the late morning. The convection would move east through the afternoon, then weaken as the convection moved into New England, where flow off the ocean stabilized the low level atmosphere, and daytime heating subsided toward sunset. Localized flash flooding was possible, even though precipitable water values were not anomalously high, but depended on whether convective lines formed and trained over locations. There was a low level southerly jet segment tracking into the region, with potential moisture advection and convergence that could support not only severe weather but flash flooding.

 

Storm Prediction Center Upper Air Analyses

 

500 hPa 300 hPa NAM80 850 hPa winds

 

Anomalies from 15Z 30 June SREF

 

Note the MSLP anomalies are 3-4 SD below normal, as are the 500 hPa heights. The 850 hPa V winds were 2-3 SD above normal and the PWAT was around normal.

 

MSLP 500 hPa 850 hPa PWAT

 

Satellite loops

 

Water Vapor Note the upper low tracking across the region, and an upper level impulse was rotating through the region.

 

 

Visible loop Note the cyclonic vorticity and broad band of convection

 

 

Data and Forecasts

 

Compare GFS and NAM CAPE forecasts. Both the GFS and NAM showed the larger CAPE values in eastern NY, very diurnally driven. Note the rapid increase in CAPE into the afternoon, and the rapid decrease toward and through the evening.

 

 

GFS40 CAPE NAM12 CAPE

 

 

Observed LAPS CAPE

 

Loop of the High Resolution WRF predicted composite reflectivity, which made quite a good prediction.

 

 

Radar Loops

 

KENX Loop from 1600-1800 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons

 

 

KENX Loop from 1800-2000 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons

 

 

KENX Loop from 2000-2200 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons

 

 

KENX Loop from 2200-2300 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons

 

 

12Z 30 June Soundings

 

 

 

ALY BUF PBZ WMW

 

18Z 30 June Soundings

 

 

ALY

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Outlook

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Probabilistic Outlooks for tornadoes, hail and wind

 

 

 

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions

 

 

 

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

 

 

Albany Area Forecast Discussions

 

 

 

AFD1 AFD2 AFD3

 

 

AFD4 AFD5

 

Surrounding Area Forecast Discussions NWS Burlington, VT, NWS Binghamton, NY, and Taunton, MA

 

BTV1 BTV2 BTV3 BTV4

 

BGM1 BGM2

 

BOX1 BOX2 BOX3

 

Precipitation estimates vs. observed precipitation Did the radar bias cause over estimates of precipitation?

 

 

Precipitable Water values were not anomalous, however, with the relatively slow moving lines of thunderstorms, training over the same areas for 1-3 hours, flash flooding was reported in Montgomery County, NY and around Bennington, VT.

 

Warnings and Severe Weather Reports

 

Another perspective of severe weather reports for individual NWS offices, courtesy of The Iowa Environmental Mesonet division of Iowa State University Department of Agronomy

 

NWS Binghamton, NY

 

 

NWS Albany, NY

 

 

NWS Upton, NY

 

 

NWS Taunton, MA

 

 

Any questions or suggestions, please e-mail Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov