(Click on any image to see loop or larger image)
This fit into the latest CSTAR research on upper lows by Matt Scolara, most resembling a CSTAR Upper low Neutral Tilt Type “A” Event
This event was well-anticipated, with the
500 hPa 300 hPa NAM80 850 hPa winds
Anomalies – from 15Z 30 June SREF
Note the MSLP anomalies are 3-4 SD below normal, as are the 500 hPa heights. The 850 hPa V winds were 2-3 SD above normal and the PWAT was around normal.
MSLP 500 hPa 850 hPa PWAT
Water Vapor – Note the upper low tracking across the region, and an upper level impulse was rotating through the region.
Visible loop – Note the cyclonic vorticity and broad band of convection
Data and Forecasts
Compare GFS and NAM CAPE forecasts. Both the GFS and NAM showed the larger CAPE values in eastern NY, very diurnally driven. Note the rapid increase in CAPE into the afternoon, and the rapid decrease toward and through the evening.
Observed LAPS CAPE
Loop of the High Resolution WRF predicted composite reflectivity, which made quite a good prediction.
KENX Loop from 1600-1800 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 1800-2000 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 2000-2200 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 2200-2300 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
12Z 30 June Soundings
ALY BUF PBZ WMW
18Z 30 June Soundings
Storm Prediction Center Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Probabilistic Outlooks for tornadoes, hail and wind
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Albany Area Forecast Discussions
AFD1 AFD2 AFD3
Surrounding Area Forecast Discussions – NWS Burlington, VT, NWS Binghamton, NY, and Taunton, MA
BTV1 BTV2 BTV3 BTV4
BOX1 BOX2 BOX3
Precipitation estimates vs. observed precipitation – Did the radar bias cause over estimates of precipitation?
Precipitable Water values were not anomalous, however, with the relatively slow moving lines of thunderstorms, training over the same areas for 1-3 hours, flash flooding was reported in Montgomery County, NY and around Bennington, VT.
Warnings and Severe Weather Reports
Another perspective of severe weather reports for individual NWS offices, courtesy of The Iowa Environmental Mesonet division of Iowa State University Department of Agronomy
Any questions or suggestions, please e-mail Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov