(Click on any image to see loop or larger image)
The 1 July event was a continuation of the 30 June event that fit into the latest CSTAR research on upper lows
by Matt Scolara, most resembling a CSTAR Upper low Neutral Tilt Type “A” Event
This event was well-anticipated, with the
Upper air data, satellite imagery and surface data
confirmed the existence of these features.
Operational guidance also suggested a very diurnal nature to the
convection. The convection would move
east through the afternoon, then weaken as the convection moved into
500 hPa 300 hPa 850 hPa
Anomalies – from 15Z 30 June SREF
Note the MSLP anomalies are 3-4 SD below normal, as are the 500 hPa heights. The 850 hPa V winds were 2-3 SD above normal and the PWAT was around normal.
MSLP 500 hPa 850 hPa PWAT 250 hPa
Water Vapor – Note the upper low tracking across the region, and an upper level impulse was rotating through the region.
Visible loop – Note the cyclonic vorticity and broad band of convection
Data and Forecasts
Compare GFS and
Observed LAPS CAPE
KENX Loop from 1700-1900 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 1900-2100 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 2100-2200 UTC of reflectivity and Severe Thunderstorm Warning Polygons
KENX Loop from 2000-2200 UTC of reflectivity and Flash Flooding Warning Polygons
12Z 1 July Soundings
ALY BUF WMW OKX
18Z 1 July Soundings
Storm Prediction Center Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Probabilistic Outlooks for tornadoes, hail and wind
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussions
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Albany Area Forecast Discussions
Surrounding Area Forecast
Discussions – NWS
BTV1 BTV2 BTV3
BOX1 BOX2 BOX3
Precipitation estimates vs. observed precipitation – Did the radar bias cause over estimates of precipitation?
Precipitable Water values were not anomalous, however, with the relatively slow moving lines of thunderstorms, training over the same areas for 1-3 hours, flash flooding was reported in Montgomery County, NY and around Bennington, VT.
Warnings and Severe Weather Reports
Another perspective of severe weather reports for individual NWS offices, courtesy of The Iowa Environmental Mesonet division of Iowa State University Department of Agronomy
Flooding – Photos from
Any questions or suggestions, please e-mail Neil.Stuart@noaa.gov